2021: The Year of Dead Cross in South Korea

2021 marked the first year of the ‘Population Dead Cross’ in South Korea. The term refers to the point at which the natural death rate ‘crosses’ and overtakes the natural birth rate on a graph, resulting in a net population decline. This trend is expected to continue, if not accelerate, in the coming future.

As of 2020, South Korea has the lowest birth rate in the world: mere 0.84 live births per 1,000 women of reproductive age per year, according to a United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) report. It’s part of a trend of accelerated societal aging, leading to much more welfare spending on old-age pension and medical expenses. At the same time, a decrease in the working-age population weakens economic growth and depresses fiscal revenue? quite a conundrum for the future of the nation.

There are various causes to this demographic cliff as South Korea has experienced declining birth rates over the past two decades. The government and many scholars have contended that this trend has been caused by factors such as rapid growth in the female labor force, high education costs, and increased divorce rates. The Korean government has been implementing policies to encourage parents to have more children by decreasing expenses and providing support for working mothers and fathers. In March 2021, President Moon Jae-in announced a new policy plan to contribute $80 billion in government funding to address low fertility and population aging phenomena.

However, the governmental policies have been fruitless so far as they failed to identify the most significant reasons behind people choosing not to have children, including extreme housing bubbles and lack of a comprehensive paternity leave system.

In recent years, South Korean Millennials (those born between 1981 ~ 1996) have developed a “three-NO” culture: no dating, no marriage, and no children. In a January interview held by Jung-Ang Sunday News, one of the millennial interviewees remarked that “It’s getting harder ... to even consider marriage because I can’t afford a house.” Another noted that “I can’t afford to have a family when I can’t even take care of myself.” Many are too preoccupied with financial and social problems to even consider having children and families. Furthermore, a billion dollars worth of pro-family governmental policies has existing loopholes that fail to reach the population in need, such as paid paternity leave being applicable only for employees at companies.

Professor Lee Sam-sik of Hanyang University addressed this issue in his report Changes in South Korea’s Population Policy and Implications of the Era. “In addition to micro-level approaches such as paying subsidies, there needs to be an effort to resolve fundamental issues in our society, including the gender inequality in our system of labor and the assumption that workers should sacrifice their family life,” Lee wrote.
In light of this, the Korean government needs to listen to the millennials on the real reasons why they do not, and oftentimes cannot, form families and have children.